Operation Epic Furry Fury
Or: "Tehran in 3 Hours" — breaking down the strikes on Iran, market reaction, and what comes next.
Not even two months after the Venezuela operation and the capture of Nicolás Maduro by US forces, our beloved Donnie J. Trump launched an operation in Tehran.
The operation is being carried out with Israeli support. Strikes have been conducted against targets in Tehran and other parts of the country. Tel Aviv described it as a preemptive strike against a security threat. In response, Iran fired missiles at US positions in the region and at Israeli territory, triggering explosions in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and the UAE.
The US and Israel officially stated that the goal is to strike Iran’s military infrastructure, its missile and nuclear programs. Trump also announced intentions to facilitate regime change by destroying Iran’s military capabilities.
Russia did not stay on the sidelines, declaring the strikes “unjustified aggression.” Iranian representatives, for their part, are attempting to bring the matter to the UN Security Council.
As for my personal reaction to this situation — it’s hard to put into words.
What Each Side Wants
Benjamin Netanyahu has spent decades viewing Iran as Israel’s most dangerous enemy. For him, this is a chance to inflict maximum damage on the Tehran regime and Iran’s military potential. He also faces general elections this year. Two years of war with Hamas have proven — Netanyahu believes his political standing strengthens when Israel is at war.
In his video address, Trump told the Iranian people that “the hour of freedom” is near.
Regime Change Through Airstrikes?
Some analysts believe there will be no “war” in the Middle East and everything will be limited to a few strikes on bases. But there is no precedent in the Middle East for regime change accomplished purely through airstrikes. Attempts to change the regimes of Hussein or Gaddafi triggered civil wars, thousands of deaths, and state collapse.
Over the past 50 years, the IRGC has built a complex political system held together by religion, corruption, and the ruthless use of force — including killing protesters in the streets.
The IRGC built a system, not a personality cult. Kill the leader — another takes his place. Regime change in Iran will take a long time; otherwise it’s just a failed attempt to “rattle the monsters.”
That’s why I believe the purpose of these strikes is deterrence and a show of force — damaging Iran’s missile, military, and nuclear infrastructure to reduce the threat of attacks on Israel, the US, and their allies. Not a deliberate attempt at regime change as in Venezuela.
What Happens If the US Gets Directly Involved in a War?
Given the difficult state of public debt — the US economy simply cannot sustain this. A war with Iran would create new financial obligations, increase the budget deficit and national debt, while simultaneously amplifying pressure through inflation and rising interest rates.
I want to believe Trump is not a complete idiot and this won’t happen, and even if he tries something — Congress won’t let him.
The Strait of Hormuz
The situation with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz also remains unclear. Approximately 20–25% of all global oil passes through it, including key export flows from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, and Iran. Its closure delivers a direct blow to global oil trade, drives price increases, and creates economic instability — even without a full-scale war. We’ll be watching.
Markets
I expect Monday’s market open to complete the correction cycle I outlined and begin a trending cycle. Also expect a rise in hedge assets (gold, silver) and oil. As soon as important news develops — I’ll post updates.
The conclusion is simple: Absolute Democracy 👍
© Seal