"Tehran by Summer". April Update
A month in — Hormuz is closed, national debt is climbing, Trump is threatening to "wipe out a civilization." Breaking down what's happening.
“Tehran in 3 hours.” “2–3 more weeks.” “Tehran by summer.” “Peace in 24 hours.” “Talks are going beautifully.” “We had wonderful, productive negotiations.” “Open the strait, you bastards”…
As you’ve already figured out — this is about Iran again. Yes, I know I’ve been promising “Argentina on Saturday” for over a month now. I haven’t forgotten — the breakdown is about 60% done.
Today Donnie declared he would “wipe out an entire civilization.” I don’t believe him, of course. Donald loves to talk a lot of shit and then do nothing — I’d call it a business specialty.
Helplessness
IMO, the Iranian SMO, now over a month in, is an excellent demonstration of US military helplessness. This country is incapable of serious, prolonged military conflicts. Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan are all the proof you need.
Soldiers have no real experience fighting in confined, complex environments, cheap drones are being shot down with missiles costing over a million dollars, and I won’t even get started on aviation losses. The US, and NATO as a whole, is only capable of exercises and impressive edits on TikTok.
Where Did Trump Miscalculate?
Trump clearly didn’t understand what he was walking into. He expected an “easy stroll” like Venezuela, but clearly failed to account for the fact that Iran has a sectarian regime willing to die for its cause. Cut off one head of the hydra and two more grow back instantly.
The decision to plan this operation was most likely made either on the euphoria of Venezuela’s success, or based on a DeepSeek plan — and when they asked “what do we do next,” the answer was “great question, let’s not guess”…
Jokes aside — I lean toward the theory that this is the result of a totally loyal inner circle that failed to notice grandpa forgot to take his pills.
The Cost of a Small Miscalculation
Count them out:
- a) Blocked Hormuz → rising oil prices
- b) National debt up $295.6 billion since February
- c) Potential Republican loss at the parliamentary elections on September 20 and Trump’s impeachment
What strikes me most is how completely indifferent Europe is to what’s happening in Iran. Nobody’s thinking about helping. Apparently Europe, as usual, decided to bury its head in the sand and hope to slip through unnoticed.
What Comes Next
Everyone understands perfectly well what’s going on. It’s in Donnie’s interest to end this as soon as possible, but without a headline like “we liberated the Middle East from a 47-year dictatorship” he can’t.
So there’s really only one scenario: massive targeted strikes at the leadership, followed by ground troops and an assault on the Majlis. Maybe not in April, maybe not in May — but I don’t believe in the “I’m going home” scenario.
© Seal